PHOTON’s 7th Solar Silicon Conference

[Munich, Germany]

Why have silicon spot prices not crashed below long term contract prices?
2009 Summary: 15 GW (GigaWatt) module production and 12.5 GW installations with 4 GW installed on German rooftops!

From PHOTON’s 7th Solar Silicon Conference

Everyone at PHOTON’s 4th Photovoltaic Technology Show 2009 Europe is still talking about Michael Rogol’s PHOTON Consulting presentation forecasting 2009 silicon prices, silicon production, and photovoltaic module production and installations during the pre-show 7th Solar Silicon Conference (Program).

Silicon spot market price – 2009

With silicon spot prices at $100-180 per kilogram and long term silicon contracts priced at $50-$90 per kilogram in 1Q09 (first quarter 2009), this appears to signal polysilicon is =not= in oversupply. Otherwise the spot price would have crashed below the long term contract price.

PHOTON Consulting forecasts silicon spot prices will rise through 2009 year end:

Spot silicon $125 to 350 2Q094Q09

From PHOTON’s 7th Solar Silicon Conference

During a later informal poll, a landslide of attendees voted for the silicon spot price to crash below long term silicon contract prices in 2009. My first thought was this ubiquitous consensus might be a contra indicator.

Polysilicon production – 2009

For Polysilicon production, PHOTON Consulting is:

Expecting 110,000-122,000 tons in 2009 with significantly higher “aspiration”.

The higher end aspiration is 163,000 MT (Metric Tons) from 187 existing and potential producers.

Photovoltaic module production and installations – 2009

PHOTON Consulting forecasts:

2009: 15GW of module production, 12.5GW of system installations
$6.2/W average system ASP, $3.3/W factory gate module ASP, Si $85/kg ASP (ave contract and spot)

The installation number was the most controversial. Mr. Rogol claimed about 9 GW of these 12.5 GW installations had minimal exposure to the project financing issues. This includes an amazing 4 GW installed on German rooftops!

Please see “Speeding toward growth in the fog” by Christoph Podewils for PHOTON International coverage of the 7th Solar Silicon Conference.

7 comments

  1. luxtor says:

    The silicon industry is or has been slow to increase overall manufacturing capabilities because of the large growth during the early 1990s that eventually when stale. The extreme growth expectations were hyped and many industry experts expected much expansion in the early 1990s. This just did not happen 18 years ago. Fortunately, we are now experience much more accepting market, social expectations of our movement to renewable technologies, and governmental support to make the switch to home solar power.

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